Yankouski, Garvin, and Giddins.  All overpowered by State Rep. Rick Golick.  But coming off his narrowest victory, just how long can Rep.Golick hang on to his seat in the Georgia General Assembly?   

This is the 4th preview in a series of 6, where the Tavern looks at the state legislative races we believe have the highest probability of changing hands from Republican to Democratic control in 2010.

House District 34, located in south-eastern Cobb County, is destined for true “swing-district” status, if in fact it’s not already there.  A narrowly split district at the presidential level (McCain won the 34th with 51% of the vote), Rep Golick secured his narrowest victory in 2008, when upstart candidate Earl Giddins held Golick to 54.6%.  While that margin of victory is still substantial, the dynamics of the district and the light competition Rep.Golick has faced in it, tells an interesting story. 

First, comparing raw vote totals over the last 2 presidential election cycles, you can see cautious reasons for optimism. In 2008, Rep. Golick raised his total share of votes cast by 609 – an increase of 5.1% over his 2004 totals.  Conversely, the Democratic share of the total vote increased by 2,014 – a 20.1% increase over 2004.  Democratic strength in early voting was strong as well, with Obama-Giddins splitting the early-absentee vote evenly with McCain-Golick at 50%.

While the rate of growth in Democratic performance is evident, our ability to run local candidates that can compete at resource parity with Rep. Golick is not.  While Earl Giddins was a good candidate, with a good story to tell, he was simply over powered by the incumbent’s ability to raise money and communicate with voters.  According to campaign filings, Rep. Golick raised 140K during the 2008 election, and had 16K in cash on hand at years end.  Giddins on the other hand, was only able to raise 19K over the entire campaign (that was actually an improvement over 2006, when Neil Garvin raised only 9K).  While money is not the sole determiner of elections, an incumbent with a cash advantage of 120K is simply an unstoppable force.

Is the 34th an option in 2010?

2010 will be a lower turnout affair where voter mobilization and turn out will be the paramount concern.  The 34th district has an increasing Democratic performance, and a solid base of voters willing to vote early.  In fact, the early voting numbers for Giddins outpaced the entire vote count for Democrats in the 2006 election.  The numbers are there to win.
 
A capable candidate, with the capacity to run a competitive campaign, has not emerged. Tondee’s Tavern has received word that Earl Giddins is considering another campaign for elective office.  Just not for the 34th House District.  A source close to Giddins has told the Tavern that he is contemplating a primary challenge of State Senator Doug Stoner (D-6). 

As of this writing, no candidate has registered an intent to run with the state’s Ethics Commission.

Previous Battlegrounds:

The Tough Nut to Crack - Rep. Jill Chambers

The Payback - Rep. Mike Jacobs

Up Next:

The Trend Races - Rep. David Casas (R-103)

Candidates Matter - Katie Dempsey (R-13)

(All data was pulled from an analysis of precinct election returns that can be found on the secretary of states website. Care was taken to distiguish between vote totals on election day, and early/absentee numbers that may not be reported by precinct.)

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