John Tibbetts in Afghanistan reading the local Tifton newspaper.

Viewed through a prism of pure political performance, Tift and Turner counties offer a bleak picture for the Democratic Party. 

But every once in awhile, the nature of a districts partisan leanings are overshadowed by the candidates who throw their hat into the ring. If the cards fall the right way in 2010, HD 153 might just prove to be one of those times.

This is the 3rd preview in a series of 6, where the Tavern looks at the state legislative races we believe have the highest probability of changing hands from Republican to Democratic control in 2010.

In 2008, John McCain was running up the vote totals in the area.  It wasn't even close; as McCain thumped Obama - capturing around 65% of the vote in the district. But a local history teacher and wrestling coach named John Tibbetts was giving the Republican incumbent, State Rep. Austin Scott, all he could handle in the race for the state House.  Tibbetts ultimately came up short, losing to Rep. Scott by a 6 point margin.  The fundamentals of the race in 2010, however, will be different,.  The reasons Tibbetts did so well in the district will remain the same.

A quick glance at Tibbett's biography offers ample evidence of his strengths:

• A native and High School Graduate of Tift County
• West Point graduate with 21 years in the Army
• Decorated combat veteran who served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Turkey
• Served at the Pentagon during 9/11

Also, unlike many of the Democratic Congressional candidates from the 2008 election cycle with similar backgrounds (read: Saxon, Gillespie, Heckman, et al), Tibbett's was able to raise a substantial amount of money relative to the size of the race.  The final 2008 financial report showed Tibbetts raised $51,233.40 over the life of campaign.  Not too shabby for a Democratic challenger in a solidly red district.

The 2010 Campaign

With Rep. Scott running for Governor, the advantages of incumbency will no longer apply to the 153rd.  In this case the old cliché of "be prepared to run twice if you want to win" may apply to Tibbetts.  Having run once and come close, Tibbetts will have picked up lessons learned and name identification that comes with the experience of running for political office. Tibbetts would be an even stronger candidate a second time. [See correction  below]  Coupled with the lack of an established incumbent, Republicans will be forced to field a candidate that matches Tibbett's connection to the community.  Any Republican campaign - even one with a natural advantage in the district - will still be starting from scratch.

So will John Tibbetts run again?  The Tavern has reached out to Tibbetts to get a comment, and we'll update this diary if and when we get one.  Perhaps only time will tell.  In the end however, the numbers tell a simple story.  Democrats will need to win 16 seats to re-take majority status in the Georgia House of Representatives. As we stand now, there just isn’t the kind of low hanging fruit that gets Democrats to within 10 seats of the majority.  Getting to the magic number of 91 will require stretching into districts like the 153rd.

Correction:  John Tibbetts ran against Rep. Scott in 2006.  Any potential race for Tibbetts in 2010 would be his 3rd attempt in the 153rd.

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Previous Battlegrounds:

The Tough Nut to Crack - Rep. Jill Chambers

The Payback - Rep. Mike Jacobs

Up Next:

The Trend Races - Rep. David Casas (R-103), Rep. Rich Golick (R-34)

Candidates Matter - Katie Dempsey (R-13)

(All data was pulled from an analysis of precinct election returns that can be found on the secretary of states website. Care was taken to distiguish between vote totals on election day, and early/absentee numbers that may not be reported by precinct.)