Written by Tondee's Tavern Sunday, 14 June 2009 12:06
The mission is simple; maximize the pick up opportunities and protect your vulnerable members from defeat. Each political party will soon begin executing a version of that strategy for the 2010 elections.
In the Georgia House, only a small number of the 180 seats are actually in play. The question that looms large will be whether Democrats can mount an effective campaign to re-take control.
While not as difficult as drawing a straight flush, the task will be on the very edges of the possible. The balance of power stands at 105 to 75, with Republicans holding a 30 seat advantage. A +16 seat pickup is indeed a major challenge, and yet, the stakes involved could not be higher. Heading into a politically precarious, decennial re-districting process, Democrats need at least one branch of government to have a seat at the table.
REPUBLICANS 
DEMOCRATS
Beginning with an examination of our pick up chances, continuing on with a look at the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, Tondee's Tavern will roll into a forecast of the battle for the Georgia House all the way up until Election Day.
Where We Play offense
The first Battleground series looks at the top pickup opportunities; snatching away any open seats and defeating vulnerable Republican incumbents. As candidates qualify and begin running, we'll adjust our forecast accordingly. At this point in time, more weight is given to voting trends and demographics.
1. Jill Chambers (R-81)
2. Mike Jacobs (R-80)
3. Rick Golick (R-34)
4. David Casas (R-103)
5. Jay Powell (R-171)
6. Gene Maddox (R-172)
7. Jay Roberts (R-154)
8. Katie Dempsey (R-13)
9. Open (HD-153)
10. David Knight (R-126)
Where We Play Defense
Coming Soon:
1. Pat Dooley (D-38)
2. Open (HD-143)
3. James "Bubber" Epps (D-140)
4. Rick Crawford (D-16)
5. Lee Thompson (D-104)
Subscribe to this comment's feed1. Former Rep. Steve "Thunder" (snicker) Tumlin is running for Mayor of Marietta this year. Win our lose, I think that weakens his chances of trying to regain his seat from Pat Dooley. If he wins, he'd have to start running for HD-38 not long after taking office, something that wouldn't look that great. And if he loses, he'd have been repudiated twice in as many years by voters in the same general area.
2. Take a gander at HD-109. We already have a candidate (former Henry Democratic Party Chair Jim Nichols). This is a rapidly diversifying district centered on McDonough.
3. HD-106 also deserves recognition. Our guy Tony Lentini has improved his performance dramatically. I don't know for sure, but I would imagine it's also diversifying at a pretty brisk clip. And it's open.
4. Consider the districts centered on Dalton (HD-004) and Gainesville (HD-26--I think). Both have sizable Hispanic populations along with some state colleges. The 26th in particular has seen some good fights for us. Plus, if Lee Hawkins runs for Congress, the current incumbent (Carl (?) Rogers) may run for Hawkins' senate seat.
5. The 67th district might also need some attention. It's probably not there yet, but it's certainly a ticking time bomb for the Republicans.
6. The 110th might need some attention. I'm not all that familiar with the political geography of Newton County and the addition of Morgan County would certainly dilute the Democratic performance, but it's worth looking at.
7. One critical defense, but in the special election and possibly in the general (if we win the special) is the 141st. It's based on Milledgeville. Just looking at the map, it would seem likely to be a Bush-Obama district and thus potentially swingy.
8. Other than the aforementioned Jim Nichols and Joseph Mann in SD-51, the only other Democrat that I know for sure is challenging a Republican district is Brooke Nebel in HD-51. This is not a district I expect to win, but it may be this cycle's Jason Adams, a good candidate who loses but lays the groundwork for better things for both the district and the candidate.
9. I have a website to follow all these races (http://2010garacetracker.wetpaint.com). Feel free to comment, add things, and use the maps for your diaries here.
Votes: +0
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